Sunday, April 14, 2013

Leadership in tough times, Part 3


How to profit when the next bubble bursts

Last week we talked about failing businesses.
Even more will fail in the next economic slump.
That’s the forecast of native South Carolinian Harry Dent, Jr..
He uses demographics to chart business trends.
He’s accurately forecast previous booms and busts.
He advises us to prepare for the next bust cycle.

Our economy moves in boom and bust cycles.
It expands and contracts . . . with greed and fear.
Some cycles are short in nature, others longer.
Washington has run up $17 trillion in debt.
That’s in only five years and at our risk.
What this means does NOT look good.
Could what’s happened to Greece happen here?
Harry Dent believes it can and will. So do I.

He identifies two groups that will profit in a bust:
1. Young entrepreneurs with ideas and capital.
3. Baby Boomers who have lots of money.
The next bust will deflate prices and slow sales.
Debt-ridden businesses will suffer.
Their money troubles will result in bankruptcy.

Have you been smart about operating lean.
About cutting costs and raising profit margins?
About protecting your cash and cash flow?
Are you focused on recession-proof markets?
This is when you can make the most of it.
As rivals go under, you can increase market share.
You can buy them for pennies on the dollar.
Always buy assets, not their liabilities.

We started our company in 1992.
Some thought we were foolish.
The economy was in a recession.
Established newspapers already served our market.
Our rivals predicted we wouldn’t last six months.
We operated a lean, focused business.
We hired the best people available.
All of us were committed to do whatever it took.
Nine years later, we owned the market.
Our closest rival sold out for pennies on the dollar.

Next: How to avoid headaches.